Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 1 NBA Computer Pick: Second Round Set to Start with a Shootout

Jamal Murray Denver Nuggets Western Conference First Round Playoffs Colorado
Jamal Murray #27 of the Denver Nuggets puts up a shot against Austin Reaves #15 of the Los Angeles Lakers in the first quarter during game five of the Western Conference First Round Playoffs at Ball Arena on April 29, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP

The second round of the NBA Playoffs is underway! We asked the AI Computer Model for the best bet in the Nuggets-Timberwolves Game 1 matchup. Now we’ll share it with you before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks!

NBA Pick

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets

Saturday, May 04, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Ball Arena

The AI Model predicts that the Nuggets and Timberwolves will combine to score 211 points. However, at Bet365, you can get the Over 209 at -110.

Minnesota’s Potent Offense

The Minnesota Timberwolves added a four-game sweep over the Phoenix Suns to advance into the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Minnesota added at least 120 points in three of the four games and scored at least 122 points in both road games against the Suns.

Minnesota is back on the road against the Nuggets, which is ideal since the Timberwolves scored 132.6 points per 100 possessions in both road games against the Suns.

In addition, the Timberwolves added at least 37.2% of offensive rebounds against the Suns in three of four games. Minnesota continues to get to the foul line at a super high rate and has limited turnovers to below 15% in all playoff games so far this season.

Bad Road Defense

While Minnesota played well enough defensively, on the road, the Timberwolves allowed at least 116 points per 100 possessions in both games.

The Timberwolves weren’t able to add more turnovers in those road games and allowed the Suns to shoot an effective field goal percentage of at least 54%. Minnesota’s road defense isn’t all that appealing, either.

Denver Hasn’t Been Elite

The Nuggets ultimately trailed the Lakers for most of their first-round series. Despite winning the series in five games, the Nuggets didn’t play incredibly well. While Denver dominated the defensive glass, the Nuggets still didn’t earn more than 11.9% of turnovers in the last three playoff games.

However, the Nuggets were still above average offensively, scoring at least 115.5 points per 100 possessions in three of the five games against the Lakers.

The Pick

With the Nuggets at home, this game has Over written all over it. I’m with the AI Model. Let’s take the Over here.

NBA Pick: Over 209 (-110) at Bet365

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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