2024 Republican Vice Presidential Nomination Odds: Kristi Noem’s Implosion

Donald Trump Republican vice presidential nomination odds
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump listens as South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem speaks during a Buckeye Values PAC Rally in Vandalia, Ohio, on March 16, 2024. Kamil Krzaczynski / AFP

As we approach the 2024 Republican National Convention, speculation swirls around who President Donald Trump will choose as his running mate in the upcoming 2024 US presidential election.

Top betting sites in countries where political betting is regulated, such as Canada and the UK, are taking bets on this pivotal decision, so let’s delve into the latest odds for the Republican vice presidential nomination to get a better idea of who might end up being Trump’s VP choice.

While much attention has been on Trump’s legal battles, behind the scenes, the former president has been assembling his potential cabinet and the big question remains: who will be his running mate?

2024 U.S.


2024 Presidential Candidate Betting Odds Implied Win Probability
Donald Trump +100 50%
Joe Biden +110 47.62%
Michelle Obama +1800 5.26%
Robert Kennedy Jr. +2200 4.35%
Gavin Newsom +5000 1.96%
Kamala Harris +5000 1.96%

What Happened to Kristi Noem?

Less than two months ago, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem led the pack with odds of +350, followed closely by Tim Scott at +450, Elise Stefanik at +800, and Tulsi Gabbard around +1000. However, recent weeks have seen a shakeup, with Noem’s odds plummeting due to controversies surrounding her upcoming autobiography. Revelations about shooting and killing her dog and other remarks have shifted the landscape.

Governor Noem’s odds have fallen to +3300 at SportsInteraction while the UK branch of Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review) has her priced at +4000, placing her in the same league as Trump’s adversaries like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. Reports from Trump’s camp indicate he finds the controversy unsettling, which has impacted her prospects.

Tim Scott +400 +450
Doug Burgum +550 +700
J.D. Vance +600 +600
Tulsi Gabbard +750 +600
Marco Rubio +1000 +1000
Elise Stefanik +1100 +1000
Ben Carson +1200 +1200

At a recent fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago, Noem left early and wasn’t brought on stage by Trump. Instead, contenders like Doug Burgum, Tim Scott, J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and Byron Donalds had their moment.

However, residency is another issue. Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds both live in Florida, raising constitutional concerns about their candidacy. Cheney’s move to Wyoming in 2000 sets a precedent, but Rubio’s current status as senior Senator adds a twist.

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) arrives for a Senate Republican meeting at the U.S. Capitol on February 08, 2024 in Washington, DC. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images/AFP

The New Favorites

Tim Scott is now the favored candidate at with odds between +400 and +450, but the emergence of unexpected contenders could sway Trump’s decision. Scott’s track record and loyal support make him attractive, but other factors may favor emerging candidates.

Senator Tim Scott republican vice presidential nomination
Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) delivers remarks before Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump speaks at a Get Out The Vote rally at Winthrop University on February 23, 2024 in Rock Hill, South Carolina. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP

Doug Burgum and J.D. Vance have recently emerged as contenders as well. Burgum, Governor of North Dakota since 2016, aligns closely with Trump’s agenda and you can find him anywhere between +550 and +700. Vance, endorsed by Trump for an Ohio senatorial run, faces age concerns but boasts odds of +600 at both sites.

Vance’s endorsement and an upcoming fundraiser in Cincinnati, where he’s the “special guest,” add intrigue. Historical precedent, like Trump’s selection of Mike Pence in 2016, suggests that unexpected picks can succeed.

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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