Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 1 NBA Computer Pick: Minnesota To Keep the Momentum Going

Karl-Anthony Towns Minnesota Timberwolves Western Conference Second Round Playoffs Colorado
Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves goes to the basket against Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 of the Denver Nuggets during Game Seven of the Western Conference Second Round Playoffs at Ball Arena on May 19, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. C. Morgan Engel/Getty Images/AFP

There are only four teams left in the NBA Playoffs! Therefore, we checked the NBA odds and went to the AI Computer model for help choosing our picks to play at top-rated sportsbooks.

For more of our betting analysis, check out:

NBA Pick

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Wednesday, May 22, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Target Center

According to our AI Model, the Minnesota Timberwolves should add a 106-101 victory at home in Game 1 against the Mavericks. At Caesars Sportsbooks, the Timberwolves are -4 against the spread, but our model likes the Timberwolves to win by five. The value is on Minnesota in Game 1.

Minnesota’s Defense Showed Up When It Mattered

To close out the Nuggets, the Timberwolves held Denver to no more than 103.4 points per 100 possessions and allowed no better than a 46.3% effective field goal percentage.

Granted, the Timberwolves were very inconsistent in that series. They rarely earned turnovers. However, Minnesota was still able to dominate on the defensive glass and didn’t allow many foul shots.

In addition, the offense typically shoots an above-average effective field goal percentage and can get to the foul line more while being more aggressive on the offensive glass.

Not Sold on Dallas

The Mavericks escaped the Thunder in Game 6 with a 117-116 victory at home. However, the defense wasn’t up to par. The Dallas defense still allowed a 55.6% effective field goal percentage and needed a massive come-from-behind win to hold off the Thunder.

It was not a great start for the Mavericks. If they fall down 15-20 points to the Timberwolves on the road to start the game, it’ll be hard for them to come from behind and win any game in the Western Conference Finals.

The Mavericks added no more than 10.8% of turnovers in all but one game against the Thunder. Therefore, if Minnesota can just limit turnovers and continue to shoot well from the field, the Timberwolves should be able to cover Game 1 of the series.

The Pick

Let’s rock with the home team in Game 1 of the WCF. Minnesota has way more momentum after knocking off the former champs in the second round.

NBA Pick: Timberwolves -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook 

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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