Heat vs. Celtics 2024 NBA Playoffs Game 1 Computer Pick: Boston Is Being Overrated

Xavier Tillman Boston Celtics Wisconsin
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks knocks the ball away from Xavier Tillman #26 of the Boston Celtics during the second half of a game at Fiserv Forum on April 09, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 1 between Miami and Boston.

Backed by OddsTrader’s Computer AI and by my handicapping, I will recommend investing in the Heat.

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NBA Pick

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics

Sunday, April 21, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at TD Garden

The spread for this game feels way too exaggerated in Boston’s favor.

Our computers agree with my sentiment, projecting a game that will be much closer than oddsmakers apparently expect.

Regular Season Meetings

In three regular season meetings, Miami lost by 8 in Boston, by 33 to Boston at home and by 4 to Boston at home. Now, obviously that 33-point loss looks alarming. The reality is that any team can go crazy from behind the arc as Boston did in that game.

However, we have a very good reason not to expect such a performance from the Celtics. They will have not played in a week. Considering that teams are used to playing every day, every other day, or every third day, a week is a very long time.

Expect Boston to be rusty, whereas Miami will appear seasoned and ready to go since it had to play a play-in game on April 19.

Playoff Miami

Miami arguably has the best coaching staff in the NBA. Heat coaches have their team playing their best at this time of year. Last year, too, they had to play in the play-in game.

After winning their second play-in game, as they did on the 19th, they made it all the way to the NBA finals, upsetting perpetually disappointing Boston along the way after winning the first three games.

The Celtics are on upset alert, yet we will happily take all those free points that oddsmakers are gifting us because they don’t appreciate the playoff circumstances relevant to this game.

NBA Pick: Heat +14 (-110) at Bet365

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler

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