Guardians vs. Red Sox MLB Computer Pick: Red Sox Look to Rebound

Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians
Wilyer Abreu #52 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after scoring a run against the Cleveland Guardians. Brian Fluharty/Getty Images/AFP

With a full baseball slate for Wednesday, our expert has the best betting advice on one of the most exciting games of the day.

Make sure you also check out our other MLB picks of the day:

MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook

Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox

Wednesday, April 17, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Fenway Park

The AI Model has the Red Sox adding a home win over the Guardians, 6-4. With Boston sitting at just -135, the value is on Boston’s moneyline in this one.

 Cleveland’s Fast Start Could Be False Hope

The Guardians have already won the first two games of the road series against the Boston Red Sox. While the Guardians dominated the first game, they needed extra innings to get by in the second game. Boston should salvage the series with a win tonight.

Tanner Houck is scheduled to take the mound for the Red Sox. He’s been tremendous, earning 25% of strikeouts and giving up just 2.6% of walks. On top of that, he’s held teams to a .097 ISO and wOBA of .296 with 49.1% of ground balls and only 18.9% of fly balls.

Houck didn’t post these types of stats last year. He allowed a .161 ISO and a wOBA of .327, but he still earned high-ground balls and gave up little fly ball contact.

He’s in line to face the Guardians, who have only hit a .161 ISO with 8.6% of walks against righties since last season.

Missing Pieces

On the other hand, Boston might not have Rafael Devers in the lineup due to an injury. But they’ll have enough lefties in the lineup to attack Ben Lively of the Guardians. Lively allowed a .274 ISO and wOBA of .396 to 201 lefties last season. Boston should have seven lefties in their lineup.

Despite the high strikeout rate against righties, the Red Sox will find a way to get the win. I’ll stick with the AI Model and grab the Red Sox at -135 MLB odds here.

MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)

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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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