MLB Computer Picks for April 2: Mariners to Drown the Cleveland Guardians

Julio Rodriguez Seattle Mariners Washington
Julio Rodriguez #44 of the Seattle Mariners dives back to first base during the fifth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at T-Mobile Park on April 01, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. Alika Jenner/Getty Images/AFP

The weather for today’s MLB slate isn’t great. But we found three spots that should get their games in without a problem. Here are three best bets from the AI Model that you can cash in at top-rated sportsbooks for tonight’s matchups.

Picks Summary

  • Diamondbacks ML (-110)
  • Mariners ML (-125)
  • Red Sox – Athletics Over 9 (-110)

*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)

New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Tuesday, April 02, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Chase Field

The Arizona Diamondbacks will have their ace on the mound in Zac Gallen. Therefore, the AI Model likes the Diamondbacks to earn a 5-3 victory at home. At -115, Arizona has some value on the moneyline.

Cortes’ Challenge

New York will pitch Nestor Cortes, a left-handed pitcher who struggled in five innings against the Astros to begin the season. Cortes allowed five hits and four runs in five innings, two walks and strikes out. His effort was enough to help the Yankees win the game, but he didn’t perform well at all.

Cortes struggled against the 265 batters he faced last year, allowing a .198 ISO and woBA of .328 with only 26.1% of grounders and 36.4% of fly balls allowed.

Arizona has five batters that hit a wOBA of at least .333 last year against lefties and will likely have about seven or eight righties in the lineup.

Stopping the Streak

On the other hand, the Yankees have gone 5-0 to begin the year. It seems like they can’t be stopped, but an ace pitcher like Zac Gallen can do the trick. Gallen pitched five innings in his first start and allowed three hits, two walks, and one run. He also earned the win.

Last year, he struck out 24.5% of batters and allowed a .150 ISO and wOBA of .300. He was hard to hit last year and will be just as difficult this year.

We’ll take the Diamondbacks to hand the Yankees their first loss of the year tonight.

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners

Tuesday, April 02, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park

The AI Model has the Mariners escaping the Cleveland Guardians again with a 4-3 victory. At Caesars, you can get the Mariners at -125, which is still really good value with a projected one-run victory.

Pitching Projections

Although Shane Bieber pitched lights out in his first start, we have to take it with a grain of salt. After all, he pitched against the Athletics and earned his 11 strikeouts. Personally, I think he’ll be good this year, but I also think Luis Castillo will bounce back for the Mariners.

Castillo is facing a Guardians lineup that only hit a .142 ISO and wOBA of .321 last season against righties. Although he has a 7.20 ERA after one start, that number should come down against Cleveland.

With Bieber, he won’t be able to sustain success like his first game. He struck out 11 and allowed no runs. That won’t continue. Last year, he struggled to earn a high rate of strikeouts. While it looks like he might be back to being a high-strikeout thrower, he’s going to face a much more difficult lineup tonight against the Mariners.

Seattle has seven bats in the projected lineup that hit an above-average ISO against righties last year. That’s why I’ll back the Mariners at home tonight.

MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook

Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics

Tuesday, April 02, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Oakland Coliseum

The AI Model likes the Over 8 in tonight’s Red Sox-Athletics game. The model projects we’ll see nine runs in tonight’s game, with the Red Sox earning a 5-4 victory. With Boston sitting at -160, the better play here is the Over 9.

Overcoming Lefties

The Red Sox will likely cruise past the Athletics. Most teams will this year. However, the Red Sox will send out Brayan Bello, who does have a couple of weaknesses.

Against lefties, he earned just 13.7% of strikeouts and allowed a .209 ISO with a wOBA of .382 last season. Oakland should have half of the lineup as left-handed hitters. The Athletics’ lineup strikes out a lot against righties but also has some power to sneak a few runs on the board.

On the other hand, Oakland will pitch Alex Wood. He’s a lefty who allowed a .178 ISO and wOBA of .351 to 308 righties last season. The Red Sox will have more righties than lefties in tonight’s lineup and have at least four hitters who have smacked lefties dating back to last year, including Rafael Devers, Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela and Triston Casas.

Let’s take the Over in this one.

MLB Pick: Red Sox – Athletics Over 9 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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