NBA Computer Picks for February 23: Will The Heat Show Rust After a Week Off?

Nikola Jokic Denver Nuggets NBA player
Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets puts up a shot against Jordan Poole #13 and Bilal Coulibaly #0 of the Washington Wizards in the fourth quarter at Ball Arena on February 22, 2024. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP

We’ve got more NBA on the horizon tonight! After looking at the AI Model, we’ve discovered our three favorite NBA computer picks for February 23.

Let’s break down the NBA odds and let us know which ones are you tailing at our top-rated online sportsbooks.

Picks Summary

  • Pelicans -3.5 (-110)
  • Nuggets/Blazers Over 219.5 (-110)
  • Hornets/Warriors Over 228.5 (-110)

*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)

Miami Heat vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Friday, February 23, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center

Our AI Model likes the Pelicans to cover the -3.5 spread with a 113-109 victory at home over the Heat. This is the first of two games between the Heat and Pelicans in the regular season.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans will play the second game of a back-to-back, while the Heat haven’t played in eight days.

Still, the Pelicans look better analytically in this matchup.

New Orleans has held teams to 113.8 points per 100 possessions and has only allowed 26.3% of offensive rebounds. Meanwhile, Miami has hauled in only 25% of offensive rebounds and will likely get limited from the foul line more in this matchup.

Miami Heat

With Terry Rozier out, Tyler Herro a game-time decision and Jimmy Butler’s absence since February 7, the Heat offense doesn’t look very intriguing anymore.

Meanwhile, New Orleans is on a four-game winning streak after adding 127 points in a 127-105 win over the Rockets out of the All-Star Break.

The Pelicans should get open looks against a Miami defense that has allowed a 55.8% effective field goal percentage this season.

The Pick

Miami’s defense is typically good, but the total lack of offense will hurt their chances of taking down the Pelicans on the road.

Back the AI Model and roll with the Pelicans -3.5.

NBA Pick: Pelicans -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Friday, February 23, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center

The AI Model suggests the Nuggets and Blazers will combine for 220 points. With the total currently at 219.5 at Caesars Sportsbook, the Over has a slight edge.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Portland Trail Blazers have already lost two games to the Nuggets earlier this year. In both matchups, the Nuggets added at least 112 points in home games.

Now they’ll be on the road against the Blazers. But the outcome likely won’t change.

The Blazers have allowed 119.3 points per 100 possessions and have given up a 56.8% effective field goal percentage. You can expect the Blazers to get torched on the offensive glass, as Denver has added over 29% of offensive rebounds per game this season.

Meanwhile, Portland has given up 29.7% of offensive rebounds per game this season and has also fouled at a very high rate.

Denver Nuggets

Denver’s offense looked rejuvenated against Washington last night. It’ll stay hot tonight.

On the other hand, the Portland Trail Blazers have the worst effective field goal percentage in the NBA. But they’ll at least get some second chances with 29.7% of offensive rebounds per game this season.

The Pick

The Nuggets should win this game on the road. We just need the Blazers to put up a fight and add some points to the total score.

If the Nuggets score 130 like last night, we’d just need 90 out of the Blazers. For example, Minnesota scored at least 121 points in two consecutive games before the All-Star Break against Portland. It’s very doable. Let’s take the Over.

NBA Pick: Over 219.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Charlotte Hornets vs. Golden State Warriors

Friday, February 23, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center

The AI Model likes the Over 228.5 in tonight’s game between the Hornets and Warriors. The projected score is 121-109, meaning the Model believes this game will have 230 points.

That’s more than a point than the actual total at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review).

Charlotte Hornets

The Charlotte Hornets haven’t been great offensively this season. The team is below average in almost every major offensive category this season.

However, the Hornets have won four consecutive games and have also scored at least 111 points in each win.

They’ve knocked off the Grizzlies, Pacers, Hawks and Jazz in that four-game span. They’re getting major contributions out of Grant Williams and Miles Bridges, with help from Brandon Miller and Tre Mann.

Since the NBA Trade Deadline, things have changed offensively.

Golden State Warriors

Meanwhile, the Warriors have still allowed a high free throw rate and only earn turnovers 12.6% of the time.

On the other hand, the Hornets have still given up 121.4 points per 100 possessions and a 58.1% effective field goal percentage. That’s the worst percentage defensively in the NBA this season.

The Pick

The Warriors are effective on the offensive glass and typically take good-looking shots to score in the top ten in points per 100 possessions.

Therefore, the Over is the play in this matchup.

NBA Pick: Over 228.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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