College Basketball Computer Picks for February 21: Can Nebraska Earn First Road Win Since December?


It’s a Wednesday! That means we’ve got a ton of college basketball on the slate for tonight! The AI Model gave us three bets to tail for tonight’s action. Let’s keep the profit coming!

Picks Summary

  • Alabama -8.5 (-110)
  • Duke -5.5 (-110)
  • Nebraska (-110)

*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)

Florida Gators vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Wednesday, February 21, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Coleman Coliseum

Our AI Model suggests Alabama will earn a 91-82 victory over the Florida Gators tonight. At Caesars, there’s some value with the Crimson Tide at -8.5. They’re expected to win by nine and cover the spread per the AI Model.

The Alabama Crimson Tide has the best offense in college basketball. This isn’t an opinion. The Crimson Tide ranks No. 1 in adjusted efficiency on offense, with a 127.1 number. Alabama has nailed 38.5% from deep and 57.4% from inside the arc. On top of that, Alabama has nailed 79% from the foul line, which is sixth-best in college basketball this season.

The Crimson Tide don’t get to the foul line at an extremely high rate but should get there enough against a Florida defense that fouls at a near-average rate in college basketball.

Florida’s Defensive Challenges

Florida also isn’t too aggressive. The Gators have added only 15% of turnovers per game this season, which isn’t very high. This will allow the Alabama offense to get many shots up. Knowing that Alabama shoots at a high rate also won’t help Florida’s defense.

On the other hand, Florida will dominate the offensive glass on the other side of the ball. The Gators have earned 40.1% of offensive rebounds per game this year.

They just won’t shoot the ball at the same percentage as Alabama. The Gators have only hit 33.6% from three and 51.7% from inside the arc. Florida has even hit just 69.3% from the foul line this season.

The Gators are also a fast-paced offense that won’t turn the ball over often. But, again, the Gators won’t be able to keep up with Alabama on the road offensively.

Let’s back Alabama against the spread -8.5 at -110 betting odds.

NCAAB Pick: Alabama -8.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Duke Blue Devils vs. Miami Hurricanes

Wednesday, February 21, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Watsco Center

The AI model likes Duke, 78-72, over the Miami Hurricanes, on the road. Caesars currently has the Blue Devils at -5.5. Therefore, the play is on Duke, who is expected to win by six.

The Duke Blue Devils have shot 37.6% from deep and 54% from inside the arc. They’ve also limited turnovers to 14.3% and have added an above-average rate of offensive rebounds and foul line trips.

The foul line trips will be difficult against Miami. However, scoring inside won’t be. The Hurricanes have given up 52% from inside the arc this season, which ranks 250th in college basketball this year.

Miami also hasn’t earned a high rate of turnovers and will likely lose the turnover battle in this matchup, even at home.

The Defenses

The Hurricanes have turned the ball over 17.7% of the time, which is more than a 3% difference compared to Duke. They’ve also struggled to get to the foul line and aren’t very active on the offensive glass.

On the other hand, Duke has limited teams to 24.8% of offensive rebounds and doesn’t send teams to the foul line very much. The Hurricanes shoot well from the field, but they’ll have to get through a Duke defense that has given up only 32.2% from three and 49.6% from two.

The Blue Devils just added a major road win without Tyrese Proctor. He could be back for this game if his concussion has healed. That will only help. Back Duke at -5.5.

NCAAB Pick: Duke -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Wednesday, February 21, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall

The AI Model has Nebraska escaping Indiana on the road, 74-72. This game is currently listed as a pick-em at Caesars. However, the Cornhuskers are expected to win by two on the road.

The AI Model has given us a couple of road teams for tonight’s matchups. That’s always a little scary. However, the analytics also prove Nebraska is the play. The Cornhuskers have won two consecutive games and are now 8-7 in Big Ten play. However, those two wins were at home. The last road win for Nebraska was against Kansas State on December 17.

However, Indiana has lost six of its last eight games and is sitting at 6-8 on the season. The Hoosiers haven’t defended the three-point shot well, allowing 34.1% from downtown this year. Indiana has also allowed 30.4% of offensive rebounds and has earned only 15% of turnovers.

The Cornhuskers aren’t great on the defensive glass, either. However, Nebraska has tallied more offensive rebounds per game this season, which should help them win that battle. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers typically get to the foul line a lot. Still, Indiana has shot just 66% from the foul line this season.

Foul Line Advantage

It’s unlikely Indiana sees the foul line as much in this game. It’s also unlikely Indiana makes a major difference at the foul line, shooting 66% from the line. In comparison, Nebraska has nailed 76% from the foul line. In a projected tight game, I’ll take the team that is consistent at the foul line.

Let’s ride with Nebraska in a pick-em. The AI Model is onto something!

NCAAB Pick: Nebraska (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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