2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Analysis & Picks: look out For Rafael Campos’ Event Debut


This week, we take a look at the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta, the third renewal of the event in South America on the PGA Tour. Check out our best bets with odds from the top sportsbooks.

Picks Summary

  • Tony Finau to Win Outright (+700) at Caesars Sportsbook
  • Stephen Jaeger to Win Outright (+2200) at Bet365
  • Stephen Jaeger to Finish Top 20 (+110) at Bet365
  • Rafael Campos to Finish Top 5 (+2000) at Bet365
  • Rafael Campos to Finish Top 20 (+500) at Bet365

2024 Mexico Open At Vidanta

February 22–25, 2024 at Vidanta Vallarta

The Vidanta at Vallarta Course

The par 71, 7456-yard Vidanta track is a long coastal course designed by Greg Norman. Wide fairways mean a bomb and gauge approach will work well as long there is no inclement weather forecast and currently it looks settled for the duration of the event.

Paspalum greens add a twist and are often something professionals love or loathe, indeed the grainer surfaces play noticeably slower than most PGA Tour surfaces.

The opening two years here have seen Jon Rahm and Tony Finau first and second, which offers punters a few clues on the sorts of players to check out this week. There are also other course correlations from South America to use like the Corales Puntacana Championship and the Puerto Rico Open, where the agronomies are very similar.

Why Is Tony Finau a Very Strong Favorite?

There are several reasons to believe that this week’s standout favourite Tony Finau is, indeed, a strong head of the betting market and has a good chance to defend his title.

Firstly, and most importantly Finau arrives back in Mexico in fine form, after a solid week at Riviera last week and Torrey Pines earlier in the season.

Secondly, the thirty-four-year-old from Salt Lake City was runner-up in 2022 here, losing to last year’s runner-up Jon Rahm.

Thirdly, last year’s win here was exceptionally easy by three strokes when holding off the world number one Rahm, who was at the top of his own game during that period.

Finally, this week’s field is rather devoid of strength in depth after recent signature events mean many of the leading PGA Tour players are taking a break.

We suggest a win-saver bet on Tony Finau this week at Caesars Sportsbook price of (+700)

Golf Pick: Tony Finau to Win Outright (+700) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)

Will Stephen Jaeger Quickly Make Amends?

Torrey Pines appears to have a strong results correlation with the Mexico Open through Jon Rahm and Tony Finau, who are both course specialists at the Californian track.

That leads us to strongly consider the chances of German professional Stephen Jaeger this week in Mexico.

Firstly, Jaeger led the recent Farmers Insurance Open going into the final round only to flounder in contention and be overtaken by fellow Continental European, Matthieu Pavon from France.

Jaeger is a proven winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, having won on five occasions, so that experience will have not knocked his confidence, but likely made the thirty-two-year-old from Munich more determined for the next occasion he gets a winning opportunity.

Well, that chance could be this week at a course he obviously likes, given his two top-20 finishes here. Stephen Jaeger is a solid option this week in the outright win and top 20 markets with Bet365.

Golf Pick: Stephen Jaeger to Win Outright (+2200) at Bet365

Golf Pick: Stephen Jaeger to Finish Top 20 (+110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)

Consider Rafael Campos for Props

This week’s props markets look like the place to bet on Rafael Campos, a player making his event debut, but who is very comfortable in the agronomy.

To prove that, his best efforts on the PGA Tour are a runner-up finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship of 2021 and third the same year at the Puerto Rico Open.

Campos’ recent form looks super solid, with a 20th place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open and the thirty-five-year-old Puerto Rican must be looking forward to his debut in what we expect to be familiar climbs this week.

Winning could be a tall order this week for Rafael Campos, so we recommend top 5 and top 20 wagers with Bet365.

Golf Pick: Rafael Campos to Finish Top 5 (+2000) at Bet365

Golf Pick: Rafael Campos to Finish Top 20 (+500) at Bet365

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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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